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National rejects tonight’s result as a ‘rogue poll’

National are dismissing tonight’s election result as an “obvious outlier”

National are dismissing tonight’s election result as an “obvious outlier”

Half an hour into counting, National Party leader Judith Collins and deputy leader Gerry Brownlee are already dismissing tonight’s election result as a “rogue poll”, saying it’s an incomplete survey with shoddy methodology.

Brownlee called an emergency media stand-up just 10 minutes ago to contest the results.

“We don’t normally talk about polls,” he said, “but this election poll you have here tonight, this national sort of, general election poll as you call it, this is just drastic and inconsistent with our own polling.

“Reception on the ground is also very important, you know instinctively from the way people deal with you whether or not you’re in political trouble and that’s just not the feeling that’s there at the moment, so Judith doesn’t believe it, I reject it, frankly, we just can’t make sense of this.”

Brownlee noted that, “even with the most rigorous methodology”, some polls would be rogue.

“And this, we think, is one of them.”

“They do say,” he acknowledged, “that the only poll that matters is the one on election day, we generally accept that, but if you also accept that, even with the best methodologies and the highest quality polls, one in 20 or so are going to be rogue, there’s no reason that one in 20 couldn’t be the one on election day.”

Brownlee then proceeded to pick about the specific methodology of tonight’s poll.

“How many are in this poll? Two and a half something million? That’s not really a robust sample size,” he said. “Margin of error could be anything. There are twice that many people in the country alone. Several times that in the world.”

Brownlee said he would be taking the party’s own polling to the Electoral Commission, and asking them to weigh up whether to go by tonight’s one or their own.

“We’ll simply be making the case that, look, we think our methodology is better, certainly more organized, more centralized. How many of these people working at polling places today, I saw someone who was a student in my electorate, how many of them have any professional background in scientific polling? How do they know how to poll these people?”

Speaking to Newshub this evening, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters also appeared to reject the numbers shown on screen below him.

“Oh, you know your polls are rubbish,” he snapped at Newshub’s Duncan Garner. “But you know what you do? You run them anyway, you run with these fake numbers anyway because you know they’re fake and you want to hurt New Zealand First, and the people are onto it, and very soon, they’re going to have their say.”

New Zealand goes to the polls ten hours ago on October 17th, 2020.